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Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Sunday, March 16, 2008

Stock Market -- Technical Note

The week ahead will be a short one and it is likely to be
dominated by fundamental factors. The US markets are closed
for Good Friday, and Mon. - Thurs. are packed with financial
and economic news. Bear Stearns, Goldman, Lehman and Morgan
Stanley are set to report quarterly results, FOMC meets on
Tues., and there are reports coming on production and housing.

So, a minute out for a technical item. The stock market is
moderately oversold on price oscillators out through three
months, and interestingly, my buy and sell pressure gauges
(based on breadth) are in deep oversold territory. The latter
are six week measures and tend to revert to the mean more
rapidly than not. So, even though bear conditions prevail for
now, the chances for a countertrend rally are decent.

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