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Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Monday, February 25, 2008

Gold Price ($941 0z.)

My macroeconomic indicator supports an uptrend in the gold
price, primarily reflecting the powerful run up in the oil
price over the last 13 months. The strong price action in
the grain and edible oil pits is a supplemental plus.

The gold price was weak today as the US Treasury put its
support behind the IMF plan to sell 400 tons of gold this
April to raise capital. There have been some hints Congress
might go along with the proposal this time.

The gold price is at a critical juncture. There is a mania
developing, and I see gold just at the point where the action
could become increasingly raucous and more volatile if the
sharp uptrend continues. I think the same can be said for the
oil price, where speculative interest remains quite vibrant.

I have linked to a gold price chart below. Note that although
the MACD trend remains positive, it is very elevated. That
sort of MACD pattern signifies increasing downside price risk
as the price moves ahead.

Here is the link to the chart.

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