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Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Monday, December 17, 2007

Stock Market -- Technical

In the 12/6 post on the stock market, it was mentioned that
the anticipated rally had materialized, but that the rocket
like trajectory was simply too strong. It was mentioned that
a sharp sell off was in the offing, as seasoned traders were
not likely to ride the rocket much longer. And so, the
market behaved and delivered a heavy sell off. The market is
mildly oversold in the very short run, and I am intrigued that
my six week selling pressure gauge is once again in significant
oversold territory. That suggests to me that there will be
another try at a rally before the year is out.

At 1445, the SP500 needs to hold around this level in the days
right ahead to put it on a suitable trajectory up from the
Nov. 26 low. Further sharp weakness from here would suggest
another retest of lows down around 1400 -1410. That's the easy
call, but we've had enough of a sell off already to bring in
some buying interest now. So, I'd watch the action carefully
over the next day or two to see whether the bulls are ready or

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