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Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Monday, October 15, 2007

Stock Market -- Short Term Technical

As posted on 10/2, I opted to close out my longs at 1547 on
the SP500. These were good trades, but as usual, I left some
money on the table. The market was overbought and on too fast
an upward trajectory. That frenetic run was broken late last
week and we've dipped to 1549. As the chart below shows, the
10 day m/a has been violated. The market is still well over
the 25 day. As well, the MACD looks set to roll over.

The dip buyers have been frozen out of the market since 9/10
and going long since then has basically involved chasing them
up. Whether today's sell-off was strong enough to pull in
sideline money I do not know. Equally, I do not know if we
will see a test of the 25 day m/a soon, either, although I
sure would like to see it to get a handle on follow through
potential in the wake of the spike following the Fed's 9/18

Look across for the link to the SP500 chart.

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