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Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Wednesday, August 22, 2007

Stock Market -- Short Term

Yes, the rally off last week's sharp lows has proven
irresistable. However, "spike" lows / no look back
rallies are inherently dubious. In bull markets,
straight climbs in the indices off spike lows work out
only about 40% of the time. In bear markets, the odds
are lower. Many seasoned traders will be looking
for a retest, and if they are long now, are working with
tight stops and hard sell points in mind.

I have included a link to the SP500 below. A couple of
observations:

-- It is disappointing the "500" could not take out the
downtrend line from the July highs, but closed at the
line instead.

-- The index also did not challenge the 25 day m/a today.
It would not be healthy if it rolls over under the
"25" as it did a few weeks back.

-- There was a positive turn in MACD. Let's see if the slower
red line follows black up.

Stay cool, stay disciplined. CLICK.

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