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Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Monday, June 04, 2007

Gold Price -- $670 0z.

Gold remains in a long term bull market and the price
is holding the strong uptrend that started 07/05.
Gold has yet to recover the highs seen at the end of a
parabolic blow-off top which wound up during 05/06.
This is not a source of concern as long as the metal
holds the trend from 2005.

The macroeconomic indicators remain positive for gold.
The primary indicator is just a touch below an all time
peak, largely reflecting a continuing advance in the
broad industrial commodities component (oil included)
since year's end. Another measure -- the $ cost of
heavy industry production is at an all time high. My
global economic supply / demand pressure gauge is in
high ground, although below last summer's peak due to
a work-off of excess oil inventories. The micro model is
up sharply because mining companies are producing low
grade ore under the $650 + oz price umbrella.

The ratio of credit driven liquidity to monetary liquidity
is in a strong uptrend. This will not favor gold unless
the metal's fundamentals are positive as they are presently.
The tailwind from credit liquidity is likely adding about
$120 per oz to the gold price presently.

Gold price chart is included. It is recovering some with
chart support at $625 - 630 0z. Chart.

1 comment:

Unknown said...

Should the chard be of $GOLD instead of GOLD, the chart of the equity for Randgold Resources?