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Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Friday, May 12, 2006

Gold Price

Gold: $712oz.

By the end of next week, gold will have finished a very well
defined parabolic up move that could, but not need not,
culminate at $730oz.(It traded that high today.) After next
week a new pattern will be set into motion. Normally, when a
commodity comes off a parabolic, there is a correction with
a subsequent retest of the high.

I am leaving go of further comment on gold for a month or so since
I think I have said all the sensible things I can say about it. We are
in a gold-friendly inflationary milieu, there is a well defined longer
term bull market in gold and it is receiving wider sponsorship and
interest. But gold is extremely overpriced by well founded technical
rules of thumb, and is fundamentally overvalued as well.

We have witnessed development of a gold mania since last autumn, and
manias, being what they are, can end abruptly or continue. Chart
wise, this is the right time for this one to end, but only a fool
would try to rule definitively.

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