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About Me

Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Wednesday, February 15, 2006

Stock Market -- Technical

S&P500: 1275

Well, the market has rallied a little off the 1260 level
of the recent post, as anticipated. As well, I have not
tried to play it, either.

When trading a bull market, I like to go long on deep
oversolds with a significant $ commitment. No such
event occured this time. In fact, when I look at the
broader market viewed weekly, to include small and mid
caps, I see a market that's still overbought when put on
an equal $ dollar weighted basis. The same holds true for the
cumulative NYSE A/D line. So, I am on the sideline for

I keep a proprietary index of the cumulative NYSE A/D line
which I adjust econometrically for the daily TRIN. I feel
it gives me a good picture of internal supply and demand.
Like most of the indices, the proprietary one also features
an ascending triangle, with the base extending back to the
July, 2004 lows. Advancing this triangle gives me an apex
in April, 2006, which will automatically close this chapter
of the market's more recent history. I see that as an
important heads up for all as it may well be make or break time
for 2006.

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