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Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Wednesday, June 22, 2005

Inventory Build

Output, sales and inventory measures for the economy show reasonable balance save for distributors or wholesalers. Spring sales are running about 8% ahead of last year, but inventories are 12% higher. With distributor sales stronger than both factory and retail, there is likely some involuntary inventory accumulation which will eventually feedback to the factory level. This is a normal development and may extend the slowing of the economy until inventories are trimmed. The imbalance at the distributor level may also affect imports mildy.

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