Economic Comments

The leading indicator sets are consistent with real growth
of 1.5 - 2.5%. Order rate measures for both manufacturing
and services signify mild growth, but remain in downtrends.
Employment, as measured by the larger, more current household
survey, shows no growth in jobs since 12/06, reflecting
weakness in construction and manufacturing. Measured yr/yr,
employment growth is up 1.8% and hourly wages rose 4.1%.
The 12 month employment and wage data support economic growth,
but the recent flattening in jobs growth is of concern. So, I
would conclude we are headed for a Spring showdown as far as
economic direction is concerned. When the economy is slow, mixed
readings from various data series are common, so it is not easy
to maintain perspective from one news release to the next. It is
not appropriate to be complacent but still too early to be alarmed.