Monday, October 16, 2006

Stock Market Update

The SP500 at 1369 is now not only overbought short term,
but is getting extended as well. There has been talk that
investment managers could be ready to chase stocks, but
there is no evidence from the tape to support the story.
If managers are going to maintain discipline, the market
will struggle over the next week or two. A sharp move up
from here would be the first tangible evidence that the
tight discipline is breaking down. Back in my heyday as
a chief investment officer, it was great to see 'em go up
when they should, but annoying when your guys and others
would start chasing, since that could bring unwanted
volatility down the road.

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